A fantastic program of races is set for Saturday headlined by the Group 1 C.F Orr Stakes at Caulfield. Throw in a few more Group 2 and 3 races and things are definitely heating up as we head towards the autumn carnival. We have highlighted each of our three star tips for today and outlined why we think they will win.
Caulfield Race 3 No 6: PLAGUE STONE
Here we have the Blue Diamond Prelude race for (Colts and Geldings). The current market sees the Godolphin horse PLAGUE STONE head the market at $3.70 followed by OLLIVANDER who finished runner up to LONG LEAF in the first prelude race back on 27/1/18. We have written about Ollivander’s chances for the Blue Diamond in the futures tips so there no doubting that it will run well here. Whats impressed us about our tip was its lead up trial to this race where it won by 4.8L being eased down. Its only ever had one run which came on 25/11/17 at Rosehill in the Golden Gift over 1100m. There was all sorts of excuses in that race after the jockey dropped the reign at the 200m mark, was checked during the race and had to come 3 wide without cover down the straight. It still ran home well and finished only 1.3L 2nd to the winner on that day. On that day it was a heavily backed favourite running around at $1.35 odds. The trial leading up to that race was a 5.3L win. This horse has all sorts of potential and gets the services of Kerrin Mcevoy to steer it home. It currently sits equal second on the line of betting for the Blue Diamond at $9.00. If it comes out and wins this race those odds should see it come into favouritism.
Caulfield Race 4 No 1: GAILO CHOP
The Group 3 Carlyon Cup over 1600m is our next three star tip. The Darren Weir trained GAILO CHOP looks well placed here. It carries only 2.5kg above the lightest weighted horse and its stats over this distance read (5-2-1-1). Its running first up with solid first up stats of (7-2-1-2). Last prep during the spring may not read anything special however of the 7 races it competed in they were at top level and each run was full of merit finishing with two wins and a third. Its big win came at this track it runs in today winning the Caulfield Stakes and beating the Melbourne Cup runner up Johannes Vermeer in the process. It also finished 1.1L third to Bonneval in the Underwood Stakes also at Caulfield and ran a handy 6.25L fifth behind Winx in the Cox Plate. These formlines look extremely strong against the field it meets today. First up at Caulfield over this distance looks a great way to kick off its campaign and we think it can get the cash today.
Caulfield Race 5 No 1: SHOALS
Our BEST BET OF THE DAY runs here in the Kevin Hayes Stakes over 1200m. Let us just reel off some stats for you. Career (7-5-2-0), Distance (3-3-0-0), 1st Up (2-2-0-0). Last prep it had four runs. It won first up in the ATLANTIC JEWEL at the Valley over this same distance. It then race two very close seconds with one of those being in the 1000 GUINEAS going down to a smart one by the name of ALOISIA. It finished its prep on Melbourne Cup Day in the Group 1 MYER CLASSIC where it won after jumping awkwardly. Its first up here and with a new trainer in ANTHONY FREEDMAN. The likely dangers will come from BOOKER who finished 2nd to MERCHANT NAVY first up last prep at this track and actually beat SHOALS 3rd up over 1400m by 0.4L. The other who will be coming hard after SHOALS will be TULIP. SHOALS was super last prep and we expect it to have come on further during its spell. Over 1200m We think it clearly has BOOKER covered and is a clear on top rated horse here for us. Three Stars
Warwick Farm Race 3 No 3: SHE WILL REIGN
The INGLIS SPRINT over 1100m. This horse was always going to be our 3 star rated tip even if the hype horse NATURE STRIP was running. 3 million in prize money and counting to date adding the Group 1 MOIR STAKES to its resume last prep. Career Stats of (7-5-1-0) First up (3-3-0-0). Its very short in the market at just $1.28 but deservedly so with only 5 other horses competing after the scratching of NATURE STRIP. Its probly not a betting race given the short odds however if you can find the second place horse an Extra should pay ok. If we were going this way we think No.5 Acqume is worth a chance of running into second after placing in two lead up trials.
Warwick Farm Race 6 No 3: SEIGE OF QUEBEC
SIEGE OF QUEBEC looks like it has the makings of an absolute superstar. One to definitely keep a close eye on. Its a lightly raced horse from the Waterhouse and Bott stable having had 4 runs for 3 wins and 1 second. As Waterhouse horses do this horse gets to the front and leads dictating its races. It runs at a very solid tempo and holds manages to run to the line very strongly. This was highlighted at its last start where it led and looked gone coming to the turn. It was the first horse under the whip while the second placed horse started to overtake it. Our ticket was ripped up and sitting on the floor when it kicked back very strongly to win. In that race it was found to also have lost a near hind plate and off fore plates during its run. Its only loss came in THE ROSEBUD over 1100m where it finished 2nd to MENARI. The danger in the race is KEMANTARI from the Godolphin stable. We feel that it will get better as its prep goes on and over longer distances. It will win a big race this prep but first up over this shorter distance (1200m) we are clearly in the camp of SIEGE OF QUEBEC. Look for Kementari to be running on late though.
Morphetville Race 3 No 7: COUNTERPLAY
Another shortie here. Should be winning this comfortably. It drops from Group class races (and running very solid) to find itself in a BM70 race here. It kicks off its campaign here and has a win and a second from two first up attempts. It carries the lightest weight albeit just 2kg from the top weight and has Dominic Tourneur to steer which is a big tick. Just wins!
Morphetville Race 5 No 1: ITZ INVINCIBLE
A BM90 race here over 1000m. Only 6 horses take part and if we can echo the same comments as COUNTERPLAY’S summary “Should be winning this comfortably”. It won a BM90 race at this track back on 16/12/17 by 1.5L over 1000m and followed that up with a third in the KENSINGTON STAKES at FLEMINGTON on 20/1/18 over the same distance only going down by 0.4L. It loves Morphetville with stats of (7-3-2-2) has 3 wins over this same distance and in this small field we see no issue with it running over the top of them here.
Doomben Race 4 No 1: SNITZ
This horse is building a good record with (7-3-2-1) Robbie Fradd retains the ride after winning the last two in a row both by margins of 1.3L. Last start it won very well after being heavily backed into $1.55 favourite. It took over at the 150m mark in that race and won comfortably. It does jump up in weight and will carry the top weight of 59kg however we dont see that being an issue. Its had a trial on 19/1/18 to keep it fit for this. Current odds are $3.20.
Doomben Race 7 No 10: DREAM MASTER
Here we have a BM70 race over 1200m which is headed in the market by our tip DREAM MASTER who currently sits at $3.90. Its won its last two races extremely well firstly by 4.75L and then last start by 2.5L. Its moving through the grades with ease and we dont see the step up from Class 3 to BM70 much of an issue. Gun Jockey Jeff Lloyd sticks with this ride. The main standout out for us has been the times that this horse has been winning in. Both were very fast. It likes to lead and if we had one slight query it would be it barrier 12. Will it be forced to be stuck wide? With Lloyd steering we are confident he gives it a nice run and will give nothing else a chance to catch it.
Doomben Race 9 No 10: SUGGAN BUGGAN
Our BEST VALUE BET OF THE DAY runs here in this race which is a Class 3 over 1350m. This horse was a last start second in the MAGIC MILLIONS COUNTRY CUP over 1200m on 13/1/18. In that race it was 5 wide coming to the turn approximatley 6L from the leader and it flew home to just miss and go down by 0.2L. This race looks like it has some solid speed on up front which will suit this horse to the ground over this slightly longer distance 1350m following its last two at 1200m. We expect it to get a good run during the race and run home strongly over the top of a leading bunch who will get out hard and tire late. Wait for the swoopers to come!
Pinjarra Race 1 No 1 TOW ROPE
A 4YO maiden here over 1400m to kick off the day in WA. TOW ROPE has been one of the unlucky ones to date. Career stats show (9-0-5-2) which is crazy as this horse is very talented. Its a horse that likes to get to the front and make the others chase. Last start it probably went a bit too hard and tired late which caused the chasing horses to pick it up and run by in the last 100m of that race. Today however it gets barrier 1 so will have no trouble getting the lead and keeping it whilst doing not much work. This will mean a stronger showing over the final stages of this race. It breaks the maiden status today. Kick you good thing!
Pinjarra Race 3 No 1 ROYAL MISSILE
A clear standout top pick here. Current odds of $2.25 look a steal to us. Its won two in a row, both at Ascot and good old PIKEY keeps the ride despite the Durrant stable having a runner which PIKE usually steers. Last start it sprinted home very well beating everything and pulling away down the straight to win comfortably by 0.75L. Prior to that it won even more comfortably winning in the same class of race by 1.25L. It does jump in weight however should get a nice midfield run during the race and kick on strongly again to get the cash.
Pinjarra Race 6 No 4: KISS THE BREEZE
Here we have the MAGIC MILLIONS WA 2YO race. Again we get a good lead with WILLIAM PIKE taking the ride. Not surprising though given this horse is two wins from two starts to its career. Its also won both of its trials. It wasnt the best of rides last start by PIKE however it shows the class of this horse as it still won comfortably. As per my comments from the ROYAL MISSILE summary. KISS THE BREEZE should get an easier run than last start and look for it powering home late to run over the top of them.
Overall today looks like a very good day for punting. Make sure you keep an eye on the Blue Diamond Prelude races as the market for the Blue Diamond is likely to shift after todays racing. Feel free to copy this page and print it out if your heading to the races. Good luck if your having a punt. Send us a private message via our Facebook page is you have any questions.